DALLAS — The national average price of gasoline is projected to reach about $3.75 per gallon on July 4, making it the second most expensive Independence Day at the pump on record, according to a new forecast from GasBuddy.
The estimate trails only the record $4.80 per gallon set in 2022 and represents a roughly 65-cent increase from last year’s holiday average of $3.10 per gallon.
The forecast follows six consecutive weeks of declining prices after a spring surge tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent easing of supply concerns, aided by a U.S.-Iran framework agreement and authorization for Iran to sell oil, has pushed crude prices below $70 per barrel, contributing to the recent downward trend.
“Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it’s being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly.”
Despite improving conditions since May’s peak average of $4.57 per gallon, the projected holiday price reflects the lasting impact of earlier supply disruptions. Analysts said Americans are expected to spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline during the July 4 travel period compared with last year.
Gas prices over the Independence Day holiday have fluctuated significantly in recent years, averaging $3.12 per gallon in 2021, rising to a record $4.80 in 2022, and settling between $3.10 and $3.49 from 2023 through 2025.
GasBuddy said price volatility remains a risk factor, particularly if geopolitical tensions affect oil supply. The company encouraged drivers to compare prices and plan ahead to manage fuel costs during peak summer travel.
GasBuddy, owned by PDI Technologies, provides real-time fuel price data and savings programs through its mobile platform, which has more than 150 million downloads.