DALLAS — The average U.S. gasoline price is expected to fall below $3 per gallon for the first time since the pandemic, according to GasBuddy’s 2026 Fuel Price Outlook released Tuesday. The firm projects a national average of $2.97 per gallon for the year, down 13 cents from 2025’s $3.10 average and marking the lowest annual level since 2020.
GasBuddy said the decline continues a four-year trend of easing fuel costs as global refining capacity expands and post-pandemic economic pressures subside. Despite the decrease, the company warned that volatility will persist due to seasonal demand swings, refinery maintenance, hurricanes and geopolitical risks.
Diesel prices are forecast to average $3.55 per gallon in 2026, down slightly from $3.62 in 2025 but remaining elevated compared with gasoline.
Regional differences are expected to continue, with the Gulf Coast and southern states likely to see prices well under $3 per gallon, while California, the Northeast and Chicago remain the most expensive markets.
GasBuddy projects motorists will spend $11 billion less on gasoline in 2026 than in 2025. The average U.S. household is expected to spend about $2,083 on gasoline for the year, a modest decrease from the previous year.
“The world has spent years recovering from the economic whiplash of the pandemic and the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the situation has been improving quietly since 2022,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “As global central banks slammed the brakes on an overheated economy and new refining capacity came online, we’ve seen fuel prices ease year after year — a trend few would’ve bet on when chaos ruled the energy market. And 2026 keeps that momentum going.”
GasBuddy expects prices to peak in the low $3.20s during the spring switch to summer gasoline before easing in the second half of the year, with December prices forecast to average $2.83 per gallon.