BOSTON — U.S. motorists are expected to face the highest Labor Day gasoline prices on record in nominal terms, with the national average projected to reach $4.03 per gallon over the holiday weekend, according to GasBuddy.
The fuel savings platform’s annual Labor Day forecast puts the average price 87 cents per gallon above the $3.16 recorded during Labor Day weekend in 2025. The projected price would also exceed the previous nominal Labor Day record of $3.83 per gallon set in 2012.
GasBuddy attributed much of the increase to volatility in global oil and refined-product markets amid geopolitical tensions. Conflict involving Iran has threatened traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global crude oil shipments, while drone strikes on Russian refineries have reduced refining capacity and tightened international supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
Those disruptions have contributed to unusually high refining margins, or crack spreads, according to GasBuddy. The company said the conditions could keep fuel prices elevated into the fall and potentially push diesel prices to record levels in the coming weeks.
Labor Day gasoline prices averaged $3.79 per gallon in 2022, $3.77 in 2023 and $3.29 in 2024 before declining to $3.16 in 2025.
Some relief could emerge after the holiday. GasBuddy said U.S. gasoline demand, which peaked in mid-July, is expected to continue declining. Much of the country will also begin switching to less expensive winter-blend gasoline after Sept. 15, which typically reduces production costs and puts downward pressure on pump prices.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, however, could delay or limit those seasonal declines.
“It’s been a challenging year for motorists, with constant ups and downs at the pump that stayed elevated into this final summer holiday, though relief may lie ahead if tensions ease,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Last year saw the cheapest Labor Day since 2020, but the pendulum has swung wildly this summer. This year has been less about typical supply and demand, and more about uncertainty over how global tensions will affect the availability of crude oil and refined products.”
GasBuddy, owned and operated by PDI Technologies, provides real-time fuel price data, discounts and other services for motorists.